2026 reality check, and this is still changing
As of June 2026, the extra pandemic-era marketplace subsidies expired December 31, 2025. Subsidies still exist, but they're smaller, and the hard income cutoff is back: above roughly 4× the federal poverty line, you may get little or no subsidy. On average, marketplace premium payments roughly doubled going into 2026.
The expiration currently stands, but Congress could still revisit it. The Senate failed to clear the 60-vote threshold in late 2025 and the enhanced credits lapsed on schedule. The House passed a three-year extension in January 2026, but it has not become law, so for now the smaller subsidies are the rule. Before you rely on any number here, check the current rule at [healthcare.gov](https://www.healthcare.gov) or [KFF](https://www.kff.org/affordable-care-act/). If an extension later passes, the math can flip back in your favor.
Translation: right now the Marketplace is no longer automatically the cheap option. But your income probably just dropped, and subsidies are based on what you expect to earn this year, not last year. So a big income drop can still make a subsidized Marketplace plan beat COBRA by a lot. Run your actual numbers, and confirm today's rules before you decide.